São Paulo, Brazil – As Brazil barrels toward its tightly contested presidential election in October, an unexpected figure has loomed large over the campaign: U.S. President Donald Trump. Through a series of White House meetings, tariff threats, and a controversial terrorist designation, Trump has injected himself into the heart of the political debate, forcing both incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his main rival, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, to recalibrate their strategies .
In recent weeks, Trump has rolled out the red carpet for both candidates at the Oval Office. He hosted Lula for a lengthy meeting on May 7, which both leaders described as having “excellent chemistry” . Just weeks later, on May 26, Trump met with Flávio Bolsonaro—the son of imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro—calling him afterward a “smart young man who loves his country” .
However, the aftermath of these meetings has revealed a stark political reality: the actions taken by the Trump administration, whether coordinated or coincidental, are reshaping the Brazilian election landscape .
The ‘Terrorist’ Designation and ‘TariFlávio’
The most immediate impact came when, shortly after Flávio Bolsonaro’s visit, the U.S. formally designated Brazil’s two most powerful criminal factions—the First Capital Command (PCC) and the Red Command (CV)—as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) .
The move was a significant victory for Bolsonaro, who has campaigned on a platform of hardline security and had lobbied for this designation for over a year. He quickly took to social media to claim credit, arguing it proved the Lula administration is soft on crime .
President Lula, however, fiercely opposes the classification, arguing it violates Brazilian sovereignty and opens the door to potential U.S. military intervention in the Amazon and its urban centers. “We cannot accept being treated like a republic of children,” Lula responded .
The political tempest escalated on June 2 when the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) announced it was considering imposing 25% tariffs on Brazilian imports, citing unfair trade practices . Lula immediately seized on the announcement, blaming his rival’s lobbying in Washington and dubbing the proposed tariffs “TariFlávio” .
“He is a traitor to the country,” Lula said of Bolsonaro, accusing him of encouraging foreign meddling for political gain . The accusation put Bolsonaro on the defensive; he released a video denying the claim, insisting he had specifically asked Trump not to tax Brazilian products and blaming Lula’s “anti-American discourse” for the trade spat .
A ‘Decisive Factor’ or a Double-Edged Sword?
Political analysts agree that Trump is now a central actor in the election, though the ultimate beneficiary remains unclear.
Oliver Stuenkel, a professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, notes that while Trump has not formally endorsed a candidate, his pattern of “partisan interventionism” in Latin America—seen recently in Colombia and Argentina—suggests a preference for a Bolsonaro victory . However, the political calculus is complex.
Pro-Bolsonaro lawmaker Sostenes Cavalcante views the U.S. president as a “decisive factor” for the right, particularly on security issues . Yet, he cautions that Trump is a risky ally, citing high disapproval ratings for the U.S. leader among Brazilian voters .
Conversely, the tariff threat has provided Lula with a powerful political weapon. Having survived a 50% tariff hike last year—which ironically boosted his popularity as a defender of national sovereignty—Lula is once again donning the mantle of the resister .
“Lula knows how to react well to this type of threat,” Stuenkel told the San Juan Daily Star. “The ‘sovereignty card’ is very powerful in Brazil” . Meanwhile, Bruna Santos of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank notes that despite the public mudslinging, the “Trump-Lula channel” remains the only functional aspect of the bilateral relationship, with their last face-to-face meeting successfully calming tempers .
Looking Ahead
Both leaders are scheduled to attend the G7 summit in France starting June 15, raising the possibility of a direct confrontation or a private detente between the two presidents .
As polls project a tight second-round race between Lula and Bolsonaro, the rhetoric from Washington has drowned out local policy debates. With the election still four months away, analysts warn that Trump’s role as an unpredictable wild card is likely the only certainty in Brazil’s volatile political season .
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